Monday, September 04, 2006

Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop? I'm Still Waiting on the First Shoe.

You all know that my ultimate oracle on what will happen in the congressional elections this fall is the Iowa Electronic Market. There is hot air, and there is cold cash. To have an opinion about political futures over at the IEM, you gots to lay down the ready. This, as past results show, produces that most difficult of all prognosticatory feats: accuracy. (I've written about this before. As Casey Stengel said, "You could look it up.")

Anyway, your Charlie Cooks and your Stu Rothenbergs have been saying for some weeks that it's looking pretty good for the Dems. I interpret their remarks to mean they think it's probable the Dems will take the House. But the IEM has actually shown declining confidence that the Dems will do so. Until the last 24 hours. IEM investors are moving a few of their bucks toward the Dems.

Why would this be? What happened? With some frequency, when the graph moves at the IEM, you can guess at the external cause, perhaps the release of a batch of new polls or the war between Israel and Lebanon or the Lamont victory in Connecticut. But I see nothing to explain this latest move. Unless that is the explanation. Nothing happened.

That's how I look at the Fall elections. Unless the Bush administration creates some kind of crisis, blowing something up or (cynic that I am) allowing something to blow up, of course the Repubs lose. But the Repubs are very bad people -- bad people in a fallen world, which is very bad indeed -- and I expect they have some political equivalent of the roofie, the date rape drug, up their sleeve.

But the closer we get to the election without the Repubs concocting an incident or pulling out some doctored photo of Nancy Pelosi in flagrante with Angela Merkel, the better I feel about the simple facts on the ground prevailing. But to be honest I still don't feel that much better. If you put a gun to my head and made me bet a thousand bucks, I would bet the Repubs hold.

The Repubs really are like something out of H.P. Lovecraft, their only advantage being its easier to pronounce their names.


B. Lundigan said...

Well conceived and beautifully written. You are, indeed, a Blogger God.

Anonymous said...

Blogger God! This is more like it. Stronger wine, madder music -- and more of it. I expect Dave Broder at the door any minute bearing a jar of poteen and a woman on his arm in a small cocktail dress that makes her looked naked.

G Pabst said...

An Angela Merkel/Nancy Pelosi love child?

I'm first in line to contribute to the campaign... whatever it may be!

What? A love child requires...

Oh, never mind.

B. Wieder said...

There seems to be a tendency for anti-Bush sentiment to spike a bit after the Sunday morning newstalk shows, which are usually founts of bad news for the GOP lately. This week we had the Pentagon's congressional acknowledgement that Iraq was Arabic for "waist deep shit," and not, as the Rovians would have it, "freedom on the march." Investors notice things like that.

Anonymous said...

Dave Broder just staggered out the door alone with puke all down the front of him. He was wearing only one shoe and holding up his trousers with one hand. The man has to be near seventy. What the hell has been going on here?

B. Lundigan said...

Who is David Broder? Is this an inside joke? I think it's great that you are getting so many clever and literate comments. It speaks well of the quality of this blog.