All Bets are On

I like a nice over/under bet. Put the Demo gain in the Senate at 4.5, and I take the under. Put the House gain at 20 and I take the over. Still, whatever happens, it will be a kind of aberration. Whatever the Democratic gain, I don't see it as secure but as contingent on the moment.

Personally, I agree with commentator who said that the Iraq war will not produce a political realignment in this country, merely a tweak, a burp, a bump that will quickly subside to the baseline, which in this country is conservative and anti-intellectual. Only a deep economic dip verging on collapse will bring the cultural conservatives back to those who will defend their economic interests.

Let's imagine an unemployment rate of 15 percent under President McCain. Ready to bet the over/under?