Wednesday, January 16, 2008

I Don't Know, But Nobody Thought I Did

I'm just going to copy today's graph from the Iowa Electronic Markets, which most of my regular readers are familiar with. IEM takes a "wisdom of crowds" approach that I've always thought was a better predictor than most political prognostications. If this chart looks likes a tangle of string -- McCain's up and Romney's down; no they isn't! -- it's because the race for the Republican nomination is a tangle of string.

No, that's too passive an image. On a daily basis, this chart writhes like a basket of snakes.

About six weeks ago, I weighed in at Brother Patrick Daugherty's blog to the effect that the political future's markets had McCain down at around 10 cents and then was the time to buy. Up went McCain! (I was just talking. I didn't buy.) But now to my surprise McCain took major lumps in Michigan, and (I read) the exit polls show the true Repubs still don't like him, which will cause him problems in all those states with closed primaries.

I give up. I have no idea who will win. My inclination is to root for the craziest of that foul bouquet of Republican weeds, but events might then elect the madman come November. My wishes don't matter anyway. Just say no to magical thinking! I suppose I should step back and watch, relishing the comedy, hoping that it doesn't turn into tragedy for Our Team down the road.

Hands off, Shakespeare!

No comments: